Daily commentary
August 31, 2026
Daily commentary
August 31, 2026

News

September 4, 2026

Daily Commentary from September 4, 2026.

Avsecurities

The trading session in the U.S. closed with moderate losses following the August jobs report, which came in stronger than expected with 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate that remained steady at 4.1%. The data raised the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting to just over 60%, up from about 50% before the report, although the market continues to view next week’s inflation data as the true catalyst. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones fell 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%, respectively, while in Europe the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% but is down 2.4% for the week. In Asia, the Nikkei and the Kospi rose 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, while China’s CSI 300 fell just 0.1%. In commodities, oil rose (WTI +0.1% to $91.4, Brent +0.5% to $96.0) and posted strong weekly gains (WTI +9.5%, Brent +7.5%); gold and silver fell 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively, while copper rose just 0.1%. In the bond market, the U.S. yield curve showed a bear flattening (short-term yields rose more than long-term yields, flattening the curve), with the 2-year UST and 10-year UST rising by 3.6 and 1.3 bps, respectively, while the 30-year UST fell by 0.3 bps; in Europe, the German Bund and the British Gilt fell 0.5 and 0.4 bps, although both have posted strong gains for the week (Bund +6.0, Gilt +6.8 bps). The DXY rose 0.2% to 99.1, and the VIX rose 0.3 points to 14.6.

In the Venezuelan bond market, the yield curve rose by an average of about 0.2 points, with broad-based gains among sovereign bonds and PDVSA issues, while Elecar closed flat. PDV'20 rose 0.1 points on the day and is up 1.0 points for the week, trading about 3 points above Amber’s workout level, as buyers anticipate that the deal will not go through. Volume was moderate at USD110M, with activity reduced due to Monday’s Labor Day holiday.