The S&P 500 hit a record high on Monday and gained 1.2% for the week. The setback came on Thursday: according to the Financial Times, OpenAI’s revenue run rate is around $50 billion, about $20 billion less than what was reported in September, and the sell-off hit chip and data center stocks. That day, Brent crude rose 4% due to attacks on ships in...

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, compared with the 90,000 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market interpreted this as good news: less pressure on the Fed to raise rates again in October. The Nasdaq 100 closed Friday at a record high, driven by AI and chips, while the Dow fell 1.3% on...

The sell-off in Treasuries was the focus of the week. The 10-year Treasury yield closed up 5.17% (+16 basis points) after reaching 5.2% on Thursday, and the 30-year yield settled at 5.49%, its highest level since 2004. The trigger was the September composite PMI, coupled with hawkish speeches from several Fed members and the crossfire of rhetoric between the US and Iran at the UN.

The FOMC raised the Fed’s target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, with no dissenting votes. The message was more hawkish than the move itself: 16 of 18 members see another hike this year, and inflation projections rose. Warsh spoke of “withdrawing a dose of accommodation”: he still does not see policy...

Ahead of the Fed meeting, two reports showed that inflation remains high at both the consumer and wholesale levels. The Consumer Price Index released on Friday showed an annual rate of 3.4% in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the 2.0% target set by...

The summer slowdown in the U.S. labor market reversed in August. The monthly report released on Friday showed the creation of 162,000 jobs, a sharp turnaround from the July figure, which was revised upward to 21,000. The August gain was nearly three times the estimates of most...