Dissent Within the Fed Stock indices fell and yields on medium- and long-term Treasury bonds spiked following the Fed’s meeting and the press conference held by its chairman, Kevin Warsh. Although the Fed kept its rate unchanged at the current range of 3.50%–3.75%, three members voted...

Oil and Yields Are Pushing Prices Higher A new escalation in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran once again drove up crude oil prices: WTI briefly surpassed $92 during the week, returning to the highs seen in early June and reversing much of the gains made following the April ceasefire and the June MoU...

Probability of a Rate Hike Declines Amid Falling Inflation Consumer inflation slowed considerably in June, which contributed to Treasury yields edging back slightly midweek and reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike in 2026. The CPI...

Trump Announces the Return of the Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz President Trump told Fox News today that the U.S. “is going to take control of the Strait” of Hormuz and that “we’re probably going to operate it.” He then declared the U.S. blockade of Iran reactivated and stated that a 20% tariff will be imposed on...

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded following a weaker-than- expected jobs report in June, amid a landscape marked by oil prices stabilizing at pre-Middle East conflict levels and a market recovery at the end of the second quarter...

Oil Prices Fall; Strait of Hormuz Reopens to Traffic. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in about four months, in line with the easing of tensions in the Middle East. On Friday, U.S. crude was trading at around $69/BBL, down 8% from...

U.S. Treasury bond yields showed mixed movements during the week: short-term yields rose to 2024 levels, while long-term yields remained relatively stable, following the Fed’s latest meeting. All of this took place against a backdrop marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices...

The Federal Reserve meeting, which concludes this Wednesday, will be the first session chaired by Kevin Warsh, who is taking office as chairman following the approval of his nomination by Congress last month. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; in fact, the markets are expecting a...

The market reflected growing expectations of a Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year. Futures markets are pricing in a probability of nearly 72% that the Fed will raise rates by between a quarter and three-quarters of a point by December, according to CME FedWatch. The probability that the...