The sell-off in Treasuries was the focus of the week. The 10-year Treasury yield closed up 5.17% (+16 basis points) after reaching 5.2% on Thursday, and the 30-year yield settled at 5.49%, its highest level since 2004. The trigger was the September composite PMI, coupled with hawkish speeches from several Fed members and the crossfire of rhetoric between the US and Iran at the UN.

The FOMC raised the Fed’s target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, with no dissenting votes. The message was more hawkish than the move itself: 16 of 18 members see another hike this year, and inflation projections rose. Warsh spoke of “withdrawing a dose of accommodation”: he still does not see policy...

Ahead of the Fed meeting, two reports showed that inflation remains high at both the consumer and wholesale levels. The Consumer Price Index released on Friday showed an annual rate of 3.4% in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the 2.0% target set by...

The summer slowdown in the U.S. labor market reversed in August. The monthly report released on Friday showed the creation of 162,000 jobs, a sharp turnaround from the July figure, which was revised upward to 21,000. The August gain was nearly three times the estimates of most...

Fed Takes a Hawkish Stance U.S. stock indexes fluctuated after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized inflationary risks in a speech Friday at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With recent inflation readings still well above the 2% target...

Treasury Bond Buybacks U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to ease long-term financing costs by announcing that the Treasury will double the size of its bond buyback program starting next month, from $2 billion to $4 billion per session...

Inflation data temper expectations of a rate hike. Inflation data were the main focus of the week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over the past 12 months, in line with the consensus. July marked the second...

Employment Plunge The monthly jobs report released on Friday showed a loss of 23,000 jobs in July, well below the consensus estimate, which had projected job growth of around 90,000. In addition, the initial estimates for May and June were revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. With the latest figures...

Dissent Within the Fed Stock indices fell and yields on medium- and long-term Treasury bonds spiked following the Fed’s meeting and the press conference held by its chairman, Kevin Warsh. Although the Fed kept its rate unchanged at the current range of 3.50%–3.75%, three members voted...