Probability of a Rate Hike Declines Amid Falling Inflation Consumer inflation slowed considerably in June, which contributed to Treasury yields edging back slightly midweek and reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike in 2026. The CPI...

Trump Announces the Return of the Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz President Trump told Fox News today that the U.S. “is going to take control of the Strait” of Hormuz and that “we’re probably going to operate it.” He then declared the U.S. blockade of Iran reactivated and stated that a 20% tariff will be imposed on...

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded following a weaker-than- expected jobs report in June, amid a landscape marked by oil prices stabilizing at pre-Middle East conflict levels and a market recovery at the end of the second quarter...

Oil Prices Fall; Strait of Hormuz Reopens to Traffic. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in about four months, in line with the easing of tensions in the Middle East. On Friday, U.S. crude was trading at around $69/BBL, down 8% from...

U.S. Treasury bond yields showed mixed movements during the week: short-term yields rose to 2024 levels, while long-term yields remained relatively stable, following the Fed’s latest meeting. All of this took place against a backdrop marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices...

The Federal Reserve meeting, which concludes this Wednesday, will be the first session chaired by Kevin Warsh, who is taking office as chairman following the approval of his nomination by Congress last month. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; in fact, the markets are expecting a...

The market reflected growing expectations of a Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year. Futures markets are pricing in a probability of nearly 72% that the Fed will raise rates by between a quarter and three-quarters of a point by December, according to CME FedWatch. The probability that the...

U.S. Treasury yields fell this week amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices. With less than a month to go before the Federal Reserve’s third meeting of the year, where it is highly likely that...

The minutes released Wednesday from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed that members considered keeping rates unchanged for longer than expected, and even discussed possible rate hikes if inflation remains high. Most agreed that a shift toward monetary policy...