The market reflected growing expectations of a Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year. Futures markets are pricing in a probability of nearly 72% that the Fed will raise rates by between a quarter and three-quarters of a point by December, according to CME FedWatch. The probability that the...

U.S. Treasury yields fell this week amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices. With less than a month to go before the Federal Reserve’s third meeting of the year, where it is highly likely that...

The minutes released Wednesday from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed that members considered keeping rates unchanged for longer than expected, and even discussed possible rate hikes if inflation remains high. Most agreed that a shift toward monetary policy...

Recent bond market movements support expectations of a possible rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year, marking a shift from previous forecasts of rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a greater than 50% probability that the Fed will raise rates before...

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remained relatively stable, ending a streak of weeks of gains, amid an environment marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices. This week, we are entering the final stretch of the season...

The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, maintaining rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range. However, the updated statement noted disagreements among 4 of the 12 members, reflecting divergent views on the direction of monetary policy. This would likely...

Bond market activity ahead of the Fed’s upcoming meeting continued to support expectations of a pause in monetary policy following the rate cuts in 2025. Futures markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on the 29th...

U.S. Treasury bond prices rose, pushing yields lower for the fourth consecutive week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended the week at 4.26%, down from the recent peak of 4.44% reached in late March. Futures markets do not expect...

Rising energy costs pushed the latest reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to an annual rate of 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2.0%. The March figure, released on Friday, marked a sharp increase from the previous month’s 2.4%. The component...