Recent bond market movements support expectations of a possible rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year, marking a shift from previous forecasts of rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a greater than 50% probability that the Fed will raise rates before...

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remained relatively stable, ending a streak of weeks of gains, amid an environment marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices. This week, we are entering the final stretch of the season...

The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, maintaining rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range. However, the updated statement noted disagreements among 4 of the 12 members, reflecting divergent views on the direction of monetary policy. This would likely...

Bond market activity ahead of the Fed’s upcoming meeting continued to support expectations of a pause in monetary policy following the rate cuts in 2025. Futures markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on the 29th...

U.S. Treasury bond prices rose, pushing yields lower for the fourth consecutive week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended the week at 4.26%, down from the recent peak of 4.44% reached in late March. Futures markets do not expect...

Rising energy costs pushed the latest reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to an annual rate of 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2.0%. The March figure, released on Friday, marked a sharp increase from the previous month’s 2.4%. The component...

The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists' consensus estimates and rebounding from the previous month's revised net loss of 133,000 jobs. The report, released on Friday while markets were closed for a holiday, also showed that the unemployment rate...

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, maintaining it in the 3.50%–3.75% range, in line with market expectations. Oil price shocks pose complex dilemmas for central banks. On the one hand, they create temporary inflationary pressures, and the more...

U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trend throughout the week, amid an environment marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, volatility in oil prices, and diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve...