May 21, 2026
Marco Rubio said there are “positive signs” regarding a deal between the U.S. and Iran, lifting the market on a day that had been mostly in the red, with the Treasury yield curve ending at...
May 20, 2026
Oil prices fell 6% amid expectations of a deal between the U.S. and Iran—which Trump said is “very close”—with WTI closing at $98 (which also rolled over to the July contract) and Brent at $105, along with base metals and agricultural commodities...
May 19, 2026
Interest rates continue to rise globally, driven by a 5-9 basis point spike in the Treasury yield curve today, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.2%—its highest level since 2007—amid persistently high oil prices and inflation data pointing to further increases...
May 19, 2026
Recent bond market movements support expectations of a possible rate hike by the Fed
before the end of the year, marking a shift from previous forecasts of rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a greater than 50% probability that the Fed will raise rates before...
May 12, 2026
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remained relatively stable, ending a streak of weeks of gains, amid an environment marked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices. This week, we are entering the final stretch of the season...
May 12, 2026
April inflation came in line with expectations at 0.6% for headline inflation, while core inflation stood at 0.4% (vs. 0.3% expected), and the annual rates of 3.8% for headline inflation and 2.8% for core inflation were 0.1 percentage points higher than expected...
May 4, 2026
The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, maintaining rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range. However, the updated statement noted disagreements among 4 of the 12 members, reflecting divergent views on the direction of monetary policy. This would likely...
April 27, 2026
Bond market activity ahead of the Fed’s upcoming meeting continued to support expectations of a pause in monetary policy following the rate cuts in 2025. Futures markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on the 29th...
April 22, 2026
U.S. equities continue to rise despite the deadlock in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with the Nasdaq up 1.6% (+6% YTD) and the S&P 500 up 1% (+4.2% YTD), despite earlier declines in Asia and Europe. The Treasury yield curve closed essentially flat, as did the European investment-grade sovereign yield curves; while...