July 17, 2025

Daily commentary

Retail sales data in the US was considerably better than expected, leading to a rally in equities, which saw a new historical close for the S&P500, following advances in Asia and Europe. On the rates side, there were no notable changes, with the short end declining marginally and the long end closing flat, with yields on the 20y and 30y at 5%. In commodities, energy rose 2% as did several metals, while agriculture closed mixed. The dollar recovered what it lost yesterday...
July 15, 2025

Daily commentary

June US inflation was mostly in line with expectations, seeing headline at 0.3% and core at 0.2% (vs 0.3% exp both), while the annual was 2.7% in headline and 2.9% in core (vs 2.6% and 2.9% exp, respectively), bringing an initial favorable reaction for treasuries, which reached a 5bps drop in yields, but which progressively turned around to end in a decline along the curve that was slightly more accentuated in the short end...
July 14, 2025

Daily commentary

With the market focused on tomorrow's US inflation data, rates rose slightly by 1-2bps in the US, similar to the change in Europe, while equities advanced marginally, following mixed results in Asia and Europe with no major changes. In commodities, energy fell 2%, while agriculture rose 1% and metals fell slightly. In Venezuela and PDVSA, the same story of the last few days has been repeated, with slight declines and low volumes...
July 3, 2025

Daily commentary

Rates rose globally, led by UK Gilts, which rose up to 20bps after Rachel Reeves' position as Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has had a fiscally restrictive stance, was called into question, which also caused sterling and UK equities to fall; in the US long rates rose up to 6bps, in a session where the Nasdaq rallied and the Dow closed flat. In commodities, we saw significant rallies in energy and metals, which rose 1-4%...
July 2, 2025

Daily commentary

Mid-day session that ends the week with a much better than expected jobs report, generating significant declines in the treasury curve that had a bear flattener (+9bps short yields and +6bps long) as the expectation of rate cuts by the Fed was reduced to -50bps again, being the first cut between September and October and the next one in December. Equities...
July 1, 2025

Daily commentary

July started with declines in Asian and European equities, while in the US we saw an unusual rotation from tech/growth to value, with the Dow Jones rising 1% and the Nasdaq falling 0.9%. In rates, the treasury curve had a bear flattener, with short bonds falling (+5bps yields) and long bonds flat, with the 2y-20y and 2y-30y spreads returning to 100bps. Within commodities, energy and metals rose...
June 27, 2025

Daily commentary

A very positive week ends for global equities with a new session in green, where European equities led by gaining more than 1%, and U.S. equities shook off a temporary decline on reports that the U.S. will not continue negotiations with Canada on the tariffs issue after Canada did not repeal the sales tax on digital services. Treasuries fell...
June 26, 2025

Daily commentary

The S&P500 temporarily crossed its all-time high today by rising almost 1% along with the rest of the US equities, after mixed sessions in Europe and Asia without much movement. In fixed income, we saw a clear bull steepener in the treasury curve, with short yields falling 6bps and long yields falling 2bps following reports that Trump would seek to replace Powell later this year, which could pressure the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, which was reflected in futures that now even speculate a possible 50bps cut in December after 25bps in September. The VIX fell to 16.3, its lowest close since February of this year. Venezuela and PDVSA both remain in demand, particularly PDVSA, where bonds rose 0.4pts average, also seeing more buying of PDV'20 which reached 93 handle.
June 25, 2025

Daily commentary

Asia closed in green to start the session on the equity side, then in Europe we saw declines of less than 1% and in the US the day closed mixed, with marginal changes. The treasury curve ended slightly higher after trading in the red for most of the session, with yields down 2bps, while in Europe rates rose marginally. On the side of...