July 3, 2025

Daily commentary

Rates rose globally, led by UK Gilts, which rose up to 20bps after Rachel Reeves' position as Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has had a fiscally restrictive stance, was called into question, which also caused sterling and UK equities to fall; in the US long rates rose up to 6bps, in a session where the Nasdaq rallied and the Dow closed flat. In commodities, we saw significant rallies in energy and metals, which rose 1-4%...
July 2, 2025

Daily commentary

Mid-day session that ends the week with a much better than expected jobs report, generating significant declines in the treasury curve that had a bear flattener (+9bps short yields and +6bps long) as the expectation of rate cuts by the Fed was reduced to -50bps again, being the first cut between September and October and the next one in December. Equities...
July 1, 2025

Daily commentary

July started with declines in Asian and European equities, while in the US we saw an unusual rotation from tech/growth to value, with the Dow Jones rising 1% and the Nasdaq falling 0.9%. In rates, the treasury curve had a bear flattener, with short bonds falling (+5bps yields) and long bonds flat, with the 2y-20y and 2y-30y spreads returning to 100bps. Within commodities, energy and metals rose...
June 27, 2025

Daily commentary

A very positive week ends for global equities with a new session in green, where European equities led by gaining more than 1%, and U.S. equities shook off a temporary decline on reports that the U.S. will not continue negotiations with Canada on the tariffs issue after Canada did not repeal the sales tax on digital services. Treasuries fell...
June 26, 2025

Daily commentary

The S&P500 temporarily crossed its all-time high today by rising almost 1% along with the rest of the US equities, after mixed sessions in Europe and Asia without much movement. In fixed income, we saw a clear bull steepener in the treasury curve, with short yields falling 6bps and long yields falling 2bps following reports that Trump would seek to replace Powell later this year, which could pressure the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, which was reflected in futures that now even speculate a possible 50bps cut in December after 25bps in September. The VIX fell to 16.3, its lowest close since February of this year. Venezuela and PDVSA both remain in demand, particularly PDVSA, where bonds rose 0.4pts average, also seeing more buying of PDV'20 which reached 93 handle.
June 25, 2025

Daily commentary

Asia closed in green to start the session on the equity side, then in Europe we saw declines of less than 1% and in the US the day closed mixed, with marginal changes. The treasury curve ended slightly higher after trading in the red for most of the session, with yields down 2bps, while in Europe rates rose marginally. On the side of...
June 24, 2025

Market Flash

During the week, U.S. Treasury yields gave ground as investors digested the latest retail sales data and comments from Federal Reserve officials following their last meeting in June.Globally, European officials remain in talks with Iranian officials in hopes of reaching a diplomatic solution in the aftermath of what happened. Oil prices rose during the week due to the possible...
June 24, 2025

Daily commentary

Wall Street optimism drove stocks higher. Rising amid an easing of tensions in the Middle East and balanced comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the outlook for rate cuts. Treasury yields and the dollar fell. Oil plunged. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%, hitting its first record high since February. WestTexas fell almost 15% in two sessions to settle near $64 per barrel. Two-year yields fell to their lowest level since early May. Markets are pricing in two Fed cuts by the end of 2025, the VIX down 12.5% at 17.43.
June 23, 2025

Daily commentary

The US attack on three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend unleashed a wave of volatility and uncertainty, which surprisingly ended Monday with the equity market up almost 1% and oil down 8%, after Iran fired multiple missiles at the US military base in Qatar, which were intercepted in what was seen as a weak retaliation. Treasuries finish higher across the curve, slightly higher on the short side where yields fell 6bps. VIX fell to 20.3...